November 29, 2010
Unbelievable, the politicians are following the voice of the bankers like lemmings and jump off the cliff. Here is the real story of two I's, the Ireland and Iceland:
(November 14, 2010) The U.S. has been pushing China to revalue its currency – at a time when Washington has been pumping billions of dollars into its economy – a move to devalue the dollar to boost the US exports while publicly talking of "strong dollar policy". The American Indians claimed that "white man" speaks with a forked tongue.
There is no currency crisis in the world but instead a major Anglo-American banking crisis stemming from their bottomless greed to gain the untouchable supreme power position behind the governments. These Westen banks that hide behind the the umbrrella from FED form a powerful cartel and are currently manipulating the governments to expand their financial power to complete their experiments with derivatives all to be paid by the tax payers but not only from the USA but also from the EU. So far with QE2 they have succeeded getting over $4 trillion to themselves in the USA and Goldman Sachs predict already that at least $3 if not even $4 trillion are actually needed.
In the graph below Thopmson Reuters tells that the dollar is undervalued by about 10%. They had to go back ten years to get this result. The question is not how they got this data, but why are they showing this data now? Using the last 5 years worth of data would have given a totally different result. They also conveniently forget that during this time the major part of the US industries have been in "diaspora" to Asia, and the USA has been involved now for eight years in two unprofitable wars: we have no more oil coming from Iraq and the rare earth metals from Afghanistan are still a pipe dream.
The above is a perfect example how statistics are used to make any desired spin. The result is no different than "eating ice cream makes you to drown during the summer", statistically highly significant. Most people have no idea that they are misled. Take our medical industry. If the industry is honest in their research we would not need to withdraw the new miracle drugs suddenly from the markets. There would be no need to add labels telling "you might become seriously ill" or even "die if you use this medicine".
The three graphs below: Starting from the left the casual observer gets an impression that investment banks are having now less money for their investing activities. Exactly the opposite is the true as when debt to capital ratio goes down the cash in the banks coffers explode. The banks are currently swimming in money as for every 10 dollars of debt they have now 1 dollar cash instead of having one dollar for every 40 dollars of debt. The middle graph tells that the US bank assets are now over 80+% of the US GDP. If they could be liquidated right now they would have $11.94 trillion cash. This is divided by their business sectors in the graph on the right.
In reality the US Banks have a huge capability to lend/ "print" FED's "Monopoly" dollars. Multiply $11.94 trillion by 30 and you get the answer. It is up to the world to believe that these "Monopoly" dollars represent real money! By now the world knows that high profile securitized US mortgage certifcates are now worth a fraction what they paid for them.
The USA has still way to go in the banks assets as the UK Banks' balance sheets are already 600% of the UK's GDP. This adds up to $13.1 trillion. So together these gentlemen have $25+trillion "cash" on their balance sheets. This is about right amount to hold into the $615 trillion in derivatives but that leaves them with no reserves at all. FED is therefore adding now $600 billion as QE2 and if we believe Goldman Sachs then $3...4 trillion more is on the way to secure the assets of the private banks that actually own the private institution we know as the FED.
Contrary to common belief the dollar is not toast - it is sick with two options to get well
The dollar is not badly damaged as of yet but it is on the way to further weakening. If FED gets it's way and it can keep on bailing out it's owner banks as long as it wants or as the Americans wake up. Hope this wake-up comes rather soon as every day we lose the dollar gets weaker and the world gets deeper and deeper into the hands of the Western Financial Oligarchy (WFO).
Ther is not a single country on this planet where the citizens cannot handle their finances the right way. We can see borrowing from global markets but that borrowing used to have limits and that is how the world has worked for the last thousand years. Tradin required always payment and if that did not arrive the trade ended until the payment came and that was it.
There is no sovereign on this planet outside this nation who would let a private banking kartell destroy her currency. Of course Mr. Nouriel Roubini is right when he states: "Private/bank debts socialized by sovereigns leading to near insolvency of the latter, requiring super-sovereign bailouts of such sovereigns."
Here he recognizes that something is terribly wrong in the current system.
Here is one example of what is going on. The people of Iceland did not go bankrupt like the desire of the scrupulous bankers from UK and Netherlands was. These bankers knew perfectly well that lending money especially to one Icelandic bank in Euro and dollar terms (were these directors really indpendent?) for normal banking activities in the country and more so for gambling on shares and derivatives in a global game controlled by WFO will sooner or later become disaster for the bank. People were simply tricked to take dollar and euro nominated mortgage loans. The lender banks were in essence already betting this outcome and that the pride of the Icelanders would force them to feel guilty and pay off the debts simply by taxation and a necessary devaluation so that even the Iceland's industries could be bought in pennies for a dollar. Be assured that WFO shorted the Iceland krona and with that has more than recovered all the loans with a handsome profit and has now ordered the lender banks to recover all of the Euro and dollar based loans also. The Icelanders should have stuck to their guns like their natural reaction was. The nation had done nothing wrong. In addition to pristine fish industry they have also Aluminum industry that produces the cheapest aluminum in the world. Iceland has more than enough "free" geothermal energy to live from. The only right message to the UK and Dutch bankers and in a matter of fact to EU and to US would be:
SCREW YOU, you get nothing from the people of Iceland beyond what you can extract from the bankruptcy of your client. We have the oldest still working democracy on the planet and we have survived long enough to know what honest life is and for that we need nobody else including you the EU and you the USA.
Icelans was a test case for a bigger pray that was Greece, with Ireland, Portugal and Spain to follow. It is unlikely they dare to touch Italy at all even it is no different. Had Icelanders stuck to their guns Greece would never have surfaced and the Goldman Sachs & al would have just been left to lick their wounds.
The truth is that WFO and bankers have created a parallel universe around the globe, a parasitic world inside our lives to suck our blood in various fees and interest from almost everything related to us. As they are private entities we have no knowledge how they operate together. After 9/15/2010 with collapse of Lehman Brothers we saw a glimpse of a vast spider web of financial dealings passing through the national borders without any kind of controls at all. Why else would FED be afraid that the whole global financial system might even collapse if the US tax payers would not give immediately their hand to rescue companies like AIG, Citibank, GM & al.
There is not the world we the people want to live in. These banks must be brought down by nationalizing every central bank on the planet and then resetting the whole system. Those banks who can not survive cannot and are finished. Of course the WFO claims though their talking heads that this cannot be done it can. The sovereigns have the power to do what they want and the armies that will have the decision power will obey the sovereign, not in the shadows hiding WFO. That is all what we need. We could then decide to nationalize all problem debts by setting the interest for them between zero and 3% with loan period up to 99 years (this kind of loans actually do exists). With this we can finally start living normal life and get rid on this spider web of the predators that will soon have the full power if they are not cut out shortly.
The wrath of the nation is worse than the wrath of a few bankers and their patrons and debtors. Anything these bankers own can be nationalized and sold in a fire sale to the citizens of the nations. It makes a big bunch of angry people but that is by several factors less angry people than in angry nations who are already searching more information of the French revolution that started in 1789.
Here i the graph starting from 70's telling the real currency story. Most Americans may never have realized that dollar not the British Pound has been losing ground all the way from the late 60's, the beginning of the record keeping, and there is no reason to believe that this trend would change. The failed empire UK has outsmarted the newcomer the USA and is having fun.
The question to ask is: Are we heading towards the repeat of the French revolution of 1789-1799 and has the still ruling Anglo-American oligarchy gone too far in their persistent belief that they have had the divine right to form global leadership after Napoleaon was defeated in Waterloo 1815 AD?
The answer to this question is yes! This Anglo-American oligarchy (BIS data) appears to controls now the $615 trillion derivatives bubble. Can they manage and move it as they wish it is still unclear. They learned plenty from Enron. Still to secure their power base they started destructing of the US middle class with the dot.com bubble, housing bubble and the recent financial bubble ignited on September 15, 2008. This all together has been equally brutal than the 1929 depression orchestrated by the same oligarchy. The stories disseminated today to populations of the world are nothing more than smoke and mirrors.
If they learn how to control the derivatives bubble they will instantly become the most powerful group ever on planet earth. However, the just announced QE2 indicate that they are not quite there yet especially if Goldman Sachs indicate that up to $4 trillion more might be needed. IF they learn it they can use this derivatives bubble as a huge sledge hammer that can be used to crush anything they want simply by swinging the raw material prices, currency rates, and even stock markets as they please.
In essence they can create "Black Swans" as they please.
Trade wars are not coming - the show in the US Congress is just diversion where the already enslaved ignorant are just abused!
The USA Congress demands that China devalues their currency by 40% based on what? It was done like all large lies by first continuously bombarding American people with exacting statements and then listening the echo. And when this got repeated enough times by authorities there is no way on earth that the people would not learn it first and the believe this to be the real truth.
It was now irrelevant that the US Congress created the now prosperous China by making it overly lucrative for the US corporations to go overseas in places like China and move their manufacturing facilities over there. This is the reason for our high unemployment numbers hovering around 10% with shadow numbers being around 16%-18%. This unemployment is not going to disappear any time soon as the Chinese are not going to close those factories and we should not forget that their military has not been disbanded either and that their navy now has the same number of warships than we have!
The "cash flow", though vaguely defined, is the most important variable for all businesses as it tells them individually how much money is coming in. In general we can also say that it is the same as wages and salaries to ordinary people. When cash flow grows the business will grow and expand and when sinks for years it may mean difficulties to come or even bankruptcy.
The positive cash flow creates wealth. For the countries of the world trading with other countries creates varying trade and currency flows to both directions. Whoever sells more than buys has a positive trade balance i.e. money is accumulating in their bank accounts and vice versa.
By dividing the trade balance by GDP of the country we get a measuring stick that can be used to compare all countries to each others (balancing this all with the usually small global imbalance makes no big difference but it can be done and we did it too). The results are in tables below, first for the major powers, then inside the EU as the fate of EU is in lime light daily, and then we have also a table showing all countries separately.
In the developed world growth of the GDP varies usually between 2% to 5% and in this respect the major countries can be classified as equals with no major imbalances between them based on this "cash flow" analysis. Of course games can be played by adjusting the currencies using the %-numbers as guidance but the annual variation will likely make this balancing fruitless effort. The demand of the US Congress that China must revalue their currency by 40% shows the total ignorance of our decision makers. We the tax payers expect our Congress to do some real work instead of dining and wining with lobbyists and their agendas. The Congress should actually learn the issues before voting but instead they are now the laughing stock of the world.
Note that Chinese leadership would not commit suicide by letting the currency to suddenly appreciate 40% over the dollar.
The Congress should also know that no bilateral decisions can be used to adjust two specific currencies. If done the rest of the world has to follow suit and the politicians can never get this kind of issues finished during their life time.
The real problem is in the private banking system that remains beyond fixing without nationalizing every central bank on this planet. After that the private banks are more than welcome to serve the industries and populations as they please. This move does not change much on the surface but it is enough to remove the root problems that we have when private entities control the money formation of the world. The derivatives bubble that is threatening us all right now would not exist. All what we need to eliminate 100% of the trade risks carries a note value to a maximum of $25 trillion ($19+/- trln for international and $6+/- trln for domestic). This amount can be controlled, say "insured", with less than $1 trillion. That is all derivatives we need, the rest that adds now to $615 trillion is nothing but gambling to gain control over the world.
CIA World Book and in Wikipedia
From all major countries Russia (1) and China (2) get the highest score in the "cash flow" table above. Russia has raw materials like oil and natural gas while in China has now, thanks to the US Congress, an ultra modern export machinery created by large American and also some European corporations. However, the Chinese today take more assertive position in everything that is manufactured in China. As To summarize, none of these "cash flow" numbers above indicate that a major adjustment in the currency values between them should be done in a hurry.
These numbers crystallize the discussion why the US dollar alone is not suitable to remain the reserve currency of the world. The 25% of global GDP can never control 75% of the global GDP, and to put it more bluntly 310 million people can never control 6,7 billion people.
The communist China is not similar than the communist Russia was and it may have a change to bring up another model for a large country that is more difficult to handle than smaller counties. The benefit over capitalism is the ability to make rapid policy changes that are nest to impossible to implement in the USA. As an example China recently decided to implement energy policy that moves it towards less fossil fuels use by forcing the utilities to buy up to 20% percent of power generated from renewable sources on their area at prices that keep the renewable facilities viable. It is impossible to imagine this to happen in the USA at Federal level where the lobbyists will see that the existing industries remain viable regardless of the environmental consequences.
The table below contains the data for the European Union. Norway is on the top with 15% of positive relative cash flow. Most of this comes from North Sea oil that the world currently needs. They know perfectly well that end of their oil and natural gas reserves is approaching. Norway was smart to stay out from Euro and their currency has appreciate accordingly as they have all energy they need for time being. To remedy the wealth accumulation to few hands Norwegian government established an investment fund with initial ownership in oil and gas industries and this fund pays dividends to all the citizens.
Sweden has mineral resources but they additionally like all Nordic countries have highly educated populations and that has contributed to creation of a multitude of different export oriented industries. The high quality publicly funded education and more or less "free" public health care that dominate over all Europe are considered "unaffordable" in the USA. Here in the USA we prefer to pay twice as much to our health care industry for "health care" that produces shorter life expectancy and generally sicker people. We also prefer to weed our talents from highest possible education by exuberantly high tuition and boarding fees that most Americans can never afford.
With ever increasing complexity in the modern world the growing gap in numbers of highly educated people is the real problem that has been slowly bringing America down in technology. The majority of the talents in the country has never been educated to comparable level with the rest of the world but earlier it did not matter when the world was less technical. Today it is no more enough that the best universities in the USA still have fabulous facilities and can attract some the best professors from the world as there are too few of these facilities and the cost of tuition is out of reach for most people.
As an average the EU has a small negative cash flow. The only problem "children" are the new entrants to the Union. They come from the former Soviet Block were the central planners from Moscow stopped their progress until the communism was abandoned in 1991. Contrary to the wishes of the Anglo-American banking empire EU has no financial difficulties to helping these countries to a new accelerated development path forward but it will take years to accomplish.
Likely only Greece and Portugal must make politically hard decisions to improve their negative relative cash flows as they appear excessively low but they are definitely not disastrous at all at this level. What happens to the affiliates of the Anglo-American banking empire is another story and if they can not survive so be it. The tax payers should not bail them out in any kind of circumstances.
There are many solutions for negative relative cash flows. Perhaps the fastest least painful alternative is to get the people in these countries to support more their domestic industries by buying mostly domestic products in everything they consume. This is a fail safe remedy not only for Greece but to all others and also to developing countries with large negative relative cash flows and foreign debt created by the foreign bankers.
All countries in the world have more than enough resources to buy all the absolutely necessities from outside. Almost everyone of them can grow the food they need and provide other necessities during any peace time period.
The Anglo-American predatory lending machine is now trumpeting to the world that Ireland would require high interest outside financing to survive. That is BS. If that would be true they should have been telling the same already to the USA. Ireland cash flow is -3.9% or about the as the wannabe bankers, the USA -3.5% and the UK -2.4%. It is the banking affiliates of the Anglo-American banking empire who are broken and deserve to go bankrupt, not the Ireland!
Why are these bankers not trumpeting the much worse cases in EU, like Romania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Estonia and Latvia? Is it because they carry no debt to these bankers as their own bankers or governments have shown them just their middle finger?
The last data table is located in a separate file showing the whole world in similar fashion as above. Those countries with high incoming relative cash flow all have large energy resources at hand. As their GDP is often low we envision major political changes bound to surface there in the near future. Would it lead to political instability and civil wars in their countries a la Al Queda, or would they be able to harness the human capital and follow the path of Norway to high prosperity by the time their resources start dwindling away?
On the bottom section of the table the problems are different. The only way out of the misery that is continuing there, at least from the viewpoint of the western nations, is the lack of education of the whole population and not only the children of the narrow elite that is already in power. Sharing the power with population is hard to swallow but it must be done or the outcome will be highly unpleasant for the ruling class.
The EU, Japan, Brazil, Russia and China are currently loudly complaining against the ongoing US devaluation of the dollar ( the US politicians can not tell the people that dollar is sinking, so with smoke and mirrors they tell that the USA is practicing strong dollar policy").
However, the same major countries will have no difficulties in accepting a few devaluations from the poorest countries on the bottom of the list. They all understand that this speeds up the process of coming out from the "gutters" and help the people forward towards more decent life. Each devaluation however, will increase instability inside these nations by increasing the difference between haves and have nots. Still commerce and industries are built fastest this way. The predatory lenders from the Anglo-American banking empire are totally aware of this opportunity for them too and will be there all the way to "help" and tie these countries to an everlasting debt spirals and to extract every bit of energy their labor force can provide.
November 5, 2010
FED gave us QE2 to put Americans back to work. Does it work?
Brazil is claiming the opposite! For them the U.S. Federal Reserve's new policy known as quantitative easing will generate distortion in the global market and hamper Brazil's efforts to curb the rise of the Brazilian real, Brazil's Central Bank Governor Henrique Meirelles said Friday.
"The quantitative easing creates excessive liquidity, which flows to countries such as Brazil," Meirelles said.
The Fed said this week it would pump another 600 billion U.S. dollars into the U.S. economy in an effort to boost the sluggish economy and bring down the stubbornly high unemployment rate.
Whom should we believe the bankers and their economists or the governors of the central banks in foreign countries who see the changes in real time?
Those of us who care to use logic have long time ago realized that economics is not a science but a belief system trying to solve an unsolvable puzzle of human mind and in this case how people will use money in case they get more and in case they get less. The politicians then mess it even further by complicating the system to surreal level by controlling who gets this money: the bankers, the businesses or the people on the streets who are the only ones that can impact the end result but as it stands they seldom get anything at all.
The puzzle of economics has an infinite number of solutions and the economists will never solve it. Whatever they predict of the future is no more relevant that the result we get from tossing a dice.
A company book keeping, that economists do together with accountants is straight forward math and anybody with moderate math skills can handle that part without errors and with high accuracy. Adding the sales and cost projections for the future done by economists is bound to work sometimes well (like gambling with dice) and that will give confidence to economists and make them believe that they master a real science. They do excellent and absolutely great work but they should stick to the fields they master and only very carefully venture outside.
On macro level it all gets totally guessing game. Nobody knows exactly how people behave in the future even if the huge numbers of marketing organizations try to tune the individual thinking favorable towards their clients' products. Then we have the the trade with other nations with political agreements that may shift it all to new directions, we have currency variations, raw material availability, trade imbalances and a myriad of other factors that all simply render the economics as a science to a guessing game how the minds of the people will react in the future world. Nobody can force people to buy anything beyond the necessities. As long as the humans are allowed to do their own consumption decisions the economics as a science cannot exist.
November 5, 2010
The violent acts against investigating journalism are still virulent. We can take almost any country outside Europe and Japan and bet that if the authorities believe they can get by with a murder to suppress the inconvenient truths they do not hesitate a second (compare e.g. Israel as recently as with the "Freedom Flotilla" this year and back in 1967 with the U.S.S. Liberty).
Should the reporters stick their head into bushes, close their eyes and ears - or should they go and tell it all first to authorities instead to their news distribution networks to secure their own survival? The problem is the route through authorities might not always work especially if the investigation has found evidence of a major issue the investigators may already know too much.
The free world will not accept secrecy but unfortunately those in power forget this as soon as they get the reigns in their hands even in the USA. Look at the recent revelations by Wikileaks on Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
The untold fact is that we are running out of inexpensive oil. This facts was the most decisive factor to invade Iraq and to build a military force of unseen might to the area covering the whole Middle East. The "bad boy" of Iraq and the desire to build a shining democracy there had nothing to do with the invasion of Iraq it all was just diversion to gain the support of American populus. In reality we had encouraged (Rumsfeld) this "bad boy" to invade Kuwait during the Bush Senior's reign but someone in the administration got cold feet at the last moment and we left.
If we really had wanted to remove the "bad boy" and help the Iraqi people we had done exactly as the young Iraqi military officers suggested at the time making even the press outside: "...remove the top brass and bring in those from lower ranks who have long been conspiring to dispose this dictator, and for heavens sake do not disband the army...the army will follow whoever is the current commander..." Of course we did just the opposite and the results became exactly as these young officers predicted. They were the ones who knew their nation and their people, the USA was totally ignorant like it still is.
And what are the US authorities doing now? We see them going after the Wikileaks instead of fixing Pentagon. This means that in all countries with equal or lesser education and poor internet access everything must be much worse. What else can it be, when the self declared "Beacon of Civilizations and Democracy" does not even follow its own rules.
Similar disconnect is visible also in the US Congress and the US business elite hiding somewhere behind. They like the military appear totally immune to any accusations of corruption or wrong doing. How do they get by with this?
Congress has done it by members becoming "irreplaceable" in Washington until they get totally senile and Businesses by becoming too "Big to Fail". As it looks they all know enough incriminating facts from each others to get everybody keeping their mouths shut or supporting even their "opponents" in case someone from outside attacks these insiders. They also have the best lawyers of the land at their disposal who know both the letter and the meaning of the laws to be used as the case may dictate. An outsider seldom succeeds in this game and the accuser with insufficient funds cannot penetrate this iron curtain.
These issues make prime news only if they are deemed by the gate keepers more attractive than soap operas, football, baseball and basketball games, debates on nonsense and all similar dumbness. However, if Al Qaeda can somehow be tied to any issue at all then this news is beaten to death on all front pages and networks for days if not even weeks in continuous reporting as if nothing else would ever happen in the world.
In is refreshing to see that Moscow and even Peking starting to report the incidences against reporters in more real time in even increasing numbers like the one from Moscow below. They have also started reporting the global news on daily basis the same way like the British networks have been doing for decades covering all bigger issues, some even a day or two earlier than they can meet the US media criteria of dissemination and finally break the barrier of their gate keepers.
November 5, 2010
True or not, you decide...
November 1, 2010
A link to a German language video report illustrating the conditions on ground in Iraq during and after the US invasion...
Wikileaks on Iraq
November 1, 2010
China's newest supercomputer clocked just speed 2.5 petaflops confirmed by NVIDIA, a California based video card manufacturer. A petaflop corresponds to a speed of 1,000 trillion calculations per second. In numeric form we have here 2,500,000,000,000,000 calculations per second. Our average new PC's runs at speed at around 2,500 Mhz or 2,500,000,000 calculations per second. The Chinese supercomputers runs still million times faster. This supercomputer has time to digest two average size books and still beat our PC before it gets to the second calculation.
How in Earth could China become number ONE? It is simple. During the President W's second term the financial support to the US doctoral level education was cut to "bones and skulls" the various consequences of this utterly irresponsible deed start slowly seeping to the surface. Be assured that the computer science is not the only scientific field to suffer.
The US Congress is totally controlled by lobbying groups and as an institution it has no idea what is happening as no lobbyist has interest on this. The Congress lives the dream of the yesterday when the USA was invincible in science even without too much effort. They do not realize that the immigrants have contributed largely to this all after the WW II but today the USA is no more the only country where the most mobile young talents of the world are moving.
They also forget that millions of scientists are working hard on all fields every day around the globe.
On practical level with the loss of the computer supremacy the USA has lost it's ability to control the global derivatives markets that today have a nominal face value of $615 trillion. In comparison the combined GDP of the world is about $58 trillion while the GDP of the USA it is about $14.5 trillion.
J P Morgan Chase (JPM) and Bank America together today control $123 trillion of the $615 trillion derivatives market and when we add Citibank and Goldman Sachs the ownership grows to 1/3 of it all. Our banks or more precisely the banks behind FED have made this derivatives market to a huge casino but unfortunately they just lost the ability to control it.
Whoever has the fastest super computers rules supreme inside all global electronic trading platforms that never close. This looks like an innocent environment as all financial institutions and electronic trading houses and brokers all have equal access to it. However, the ability to communicate fast rules this environment.
The US companies like Goldman Sachs with their "doomsday machine" have enjoyed a period of total supremacy on all electronic platforms until sometime late June 2009 when Goldman's computer wizard, Sergey Aleynikov, was arrested on July 3rd. He told FBI agents he had uploaded the full code to a file serving site in Europe in "multiple occassions" (site was xp-dev.com). However it was not before July 6th than this file sharing site was shut down. Be assured that this specific code was treated like anything else you post in internet as a "shareware". It is lunacy to assume that this code was not picked also by the Chinese and Russian intelligence groups.
The same way it is lunacy to assume that the "virus" type code attacking the Iranian nuclear facility just recently was not picked up by all intelligence groups and also by a few thousend hackers. Perhaps the recent 50 nuclear minutema missiles in Wyoming were unable to communicate with their command center as someone just tested a new variation of this code.
And perhaps the May 20, 2010 15 minute market episode in the USA contained a test of one of the already newer versions of the 'doomsday machine" code probing the "waters" to gain information for parameter development.